Current soil moisture conditions across primary agriculture regions feature wet conditions in Europe/Western Russia and much of Asia. Western Australia is in drought while eastern sections are unexpectedly wet despite the El Nino summer. Argentina trend is wetter again while many parts of Brazil stay in drought. In the Midwest U.S. the 2023 drought is hanging on.

AI FORECASTNET V2 is forecasting a new arctic air mass generating over Alaska and Western Canada due to additional stratospheric warming in the medium range. A careful eye on whether this new arctic mass may release into the Western U.S. in the extended range. Meanwhile, despite the warmth in U.S. and Europe for late winter, much of Asia is quite cold!

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog 6-month precipitation forecast for the U.S. coupled with current soil moisture and trend yields the second half of summer U.S. drought risk areas. Most prominent and agreeable to the NOAA CAS forecast is Georgia and Florida followed by Texas. The CIC-CA projection adds the Northwest U.S. and northern Great Lakes. The Midwest U.S. is likely to avoid a 2024 drought.

Stratospheric warming leading to evolution of a large arctic air mass remains in the forecast for Eurasia. Latest indications are the air mass releases southeastward into China in the 1-15-day period rather than cross-polar into North America. Consequently, the U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is revised milder for the second half of February.