The overnight ECM 240-hour forecast is an attention getter. Frigid arctic air is present across the western half of Canada charging into the Northwest and North-central U.S. Temperatures average 20F to 40F below normal in this air mass and feature 2-meter temperature forecasts of -40F to -50F in Central Canada with below zero into Wyoming and South Dakota.

Central and East Brazil drought receives significant rainfall over the next 10 days. Heavy rains including severe storms continues to strike Eastern Australia likely to last most of January. Meanwhile, another arctic air mass for Northwest Eurasia.

Based on a MEI-driven constructed analog, drought concern for MAR/APR/MAY 2024 are likely for Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mid-south U.S., and developing in U.K. plus the Black Sea region to West-central Russia. During JUN/JUL/AUG 2024, drought is likely to continue in the Black Sea region to West-central Russia, the British Isles, Western Tennessee Valley, and emerge in the Northeast U.S. Dryness shifts south back into Argentina during JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.

The latest week 2-4 forecast by ECM needs adjustments across the southern half of the U.S. for the first half of January as a potent storm track generates locally chilly air (and snowfall) while the very warm pattern retreats farther north than indicated by the model.