Today’s 15-day precipitation forecast is produced using the new AIFS (artificial intelligence forecast system) generated by ECMWF. This is the first precipitation forecast generated by artificial intelligence made available on an experimental basis every 6 hours and available through CWG/Storm Vista.

Q1 of 2024 was warmer than normal in each of the 48 contiguous states including MUCH ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic to New England States. Six states finished the 3-month period with their 2nd warmest Q1 on record, including Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nationally, Q1 was 5th warmest on record.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) announced that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is forecast to return to the positive phase in May lasting several months into early Q4/2024. ABOM identifies +IOD years (since 1950) as 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2019, and 2023. In each of these analog years (except for 1961 and 1967) El Nino was present. Of the 10 analog years, 5 featured strong El Nino.

An interesting conflict has emerged regarding phase of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) for mid-2024. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates a shift of the neutral IOD pattern back into positive phase by MAY/JUN. The positive phase remains in-place through the winter season. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast maintains neutral phase.