Severe thunderstorms bring heavy rain in Texas today where widespread flooding is likely later today and tonight. The maximum risk is across central and north-central Texas. Redeveloping heavy rain and flood risk occurs in Texas and the southwest/south Great Plains on Wednesday. The THU/FRI flood risk is impressive and likely to increase from Kansas to Texas and eastward to Arkansas.

Nearly two dozen people have been killed due to severe weather this weekend from Arkansas and Oklahoma to Kentucky. Yesterday, the most severe weather reports of any day in 2024 so far were recorded. Most of the 1,136 reports were damaging wind gusts although 16 tornado reports are included.

The subsurface equatorial ocean regions upper ocean heat analysis according to ECMWF from April 2024 foreshadow major climate pattern changes ahead if current analysis and trend hold for JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.

The (Long Paddock) daily southern oscillation index (SOI) can tell us something about the atmospheric reaction to what’s going on within the ENSO System. El Nino ended recently, and neutral ENSO is in-place. We’re awaiting a transition to La Nina during the second half of the year although confidence in timing is LOW.