The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast valid for September 2025 through January 2026 is based on influence of climate associated with developing weak La Nina and the presence of a marine heatwave off the Argentina Coast. The outlook worsens Brazil drought except for northeast Brazil. Drought in Argentina also worsens.

Beginning next week, the hot weather affecting the East breaks down, and near normal temperatures prevail the remainder of the month. CIC agrees with ECMWF that anomalous warmth regenerates in September (AI and other operational models are cooler in the East during early September).

The outlook across Europe trends hotter and drier. The primary change is extending the heat and dryness through the 11-15-day period. All Europe crop areas are affected. In the U.S., the Corn Belt observes weather extreme with period sof heavy rain and hot temperatures.

Simultaneous heatwaves affecting high population regions of the U.S. and Europe are indicated by the 12Z GFS for the 6-10-day period. The heatwave continues in the 11-15-day period anchored over the Central/Midwest U.S. and Western Europe (Fig. 3-4).