Dorian may slow on approach to Puerto Rico today, lose some intensity tonight crossing the island then re-emerge north of Puerto Rico reaching hurricane strength in 2 days. Dorian turns more west-northwest due to steering guidance of a strengthening Bermuda High on the weekend. Tropical cyclone models indicate Dorian could become a major hurricane in the day 4 to 5 period while east of Florida.

The D1, D2 drought areas in southwest/southeast Brazil look to receive some beneficial rainfall during the medium-range period agreed upon by both the GFS and ECM. The wetter trend for these areas which desperately need the rain is a forecast change (from drier outlook late last week).

Two potential tropical cyclones have emerged in the North Atlantic tropics. Tropical Disturbance 98L moves into Florida this weekend and may reorganize moving northeastward off the U.S. East Coast becoming a tropical storm Monday night or Tuesday. In the central North Atlantic tropics Tropical Disturbance 99L may become a tropical storm moving toward the Caribbean Sea early next week.

Neutral ENSO ahead BUT with a Modoki-like character for northern hemisphere autumn. Indian Ocean Dipole forecasts indicate an immensely intense positive phase.