A comparison betwen the constructed analog forecast produced by Climate Impact Company and the probabilistic climate forecast issued by NOAA/CPC for winter, spring and summer ahead.

Two climate alerts are issued. The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole causing the Australian drought is beginning to ease increasing risk of returning beneficial rainfall late rthis summer season. A stratospheric warming event initiates in 10 days over Alaska and could cause an arctic outbreak in North America in early December.

Extended-range forecast models are very warm across the U.S. However, a moderate-to-strong progressive Madden Julian oscillation, continued negative phase of the arctic oscillation and expanding snow cover implies and warm-ups will be brief and overall the U.S. stays cold into Thanksgiving week.

The most striking soil moisture anomalies across the globe as of Nov. 1, 2019 is the historic wet signature across India (afte rthe latest wet monsoon on record) and drought signatures ove rparts of Brazi, Europe, South Africa and Australia.