Research (Greg McCabe, Julie Betancourt and Michael Palecki) has shown that the -PDO/+AMO regime has a tendency to increase drought risk across the Southwest and Midwest U.S. during the warm season. The current U.S. soil moisture regime certainly recognizes the -PDO/+AMO influence on late summer soil moisture.

The NOAA/NHC storm surge forecast has increased to 15-20 feet near the TX/LA state line eastward along the southwest coast of Louisiana. The storm surge is 10-15 feet on the upper Texas coast and 10-15 feet central Louisiana coast. The forecast identifies a record storm surge for this location with catastrophic coastal damage extending well inland for low-lying land and also major loss of life for anyone along or just inland the coast.

Laura should easily reach category-3 hurricane intensity in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico midweek and possibly a category-4 hurricane prior to striking the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Marco is a little stronger at 8AM EDT Saturday. However, a 30-40 knot southwest upper shear band is ahead across the central Gulf of Mexico. Marco will need to fight through that shear to survive. Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to track west-west-northwest across Hispaniola and Cuba over-the-weekend which is a tough course to follow to survive due to the high terrain. HOWEVER, if each storm survives these obstacles the super warm Gulf of Mexico could allow strengthening to a hurricane before eventual landfall in the north or northwest Gulf of Mexico.