Anomalous important heat risk is always important in July for the Great Plains. Heading into July the shallow soil moisture trend across most of the Great Plains is drier and deep layer soil moisture is dry in the western Great Plains. At a glance, the west/southwest Great Plains are at risk of an evolving drought and possibly a flash drought if sustained hot weather occurs. It’s mostly about temperature in July (unless gully-washer thunderstorms are occurring).

High pressure ridging across a region of developing shallow soil moisture deficit where deep layer soil moisture deficit already exits indicates a flash drought risk.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast for each of the next 4 weeks indicates moderately to much higher than normal cooling demand.

Upper ocean heat anomalies became boldly negative east of the Dateline in the equatorial Pacific Ocean last month. Implied was plenty of support for La Nina ahead. However, the past couple weeks have observed the cool anomalies staring to weaken indicating and La Nina ahead would be brief and weak.