The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast remains consistent, turning Milton northeastward tonight, and then into the Tampa Area as a strong category-3 major hurricane around 1AM Thursday. The forecast track is a little slower than yesterday’s forecast.

Upper ridge patterns are well-amplified and centered on Northern Italy and West-central Russia. In-between is an upper trough brining wet weather to the drought region across Southwest Russia and much of the Black Sea region. The upper trough lingers into early November. Also, a look at optimum climate normal for Europe winter.

At 11AM EDT, Category-4 Major Hurricane Milton is located at 21.7N/91.7W or about 720 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Top wind is 155 mph. The threshold of a category-5 major hurricane is 156 mph. Milton is moving east-southeast at 9 mph. Surface pressure has plummeted to 933 MB. NOAA/NHC states that the 85 knot increase in wind speed during the past 24 hours is 3rd fastest behind Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007). Shortly after this (NOAA) message, the storm was upgraded to a category-5 major hurricane.

The NOAA/NHC 5-day outlook strengthens Milton to a hurricane tonight with due east movement continuing to early Tuesday followed by intensification to a category-3 major hurricane while turning east-northeast Tuesday afternoon. Milton maintains that track and makes landfall as a category-3 major hurricane in the Tampa, FL area late Wednesday afternoon.