A pattern change is welcomed news for Brazil. A semi-permanent low-pressure area southeast of Brazil present much of summer was responsible for heavy rain and frequent flooding. The 15-day outlook indicates a pattern change...high-pressure over southeastern Brazil which promises a drier climate heading into early March while Argentina turns wet.

Another major rainfall/flooding/landslide event has taken place in Brazil this time in Petropolis located in the hills above Rio de Janeiro and following historical rainfall/flooding events in Sao Paolo in late January and Minas Gerais in mid-January. The excessive rainfall events in Brazil have been common during summer 2021-22 extending westward from the Brazil Coast to Central/Southwest Brazil.

After two years of a generally wetter than normal climate across Australia there are signs of dry and hot weather ahead. Forecast models are very dry and turn quite hot across north and west portions of Australia over the next 2 weeks.

In 2022 the Pacific decadal oscillation is favored to stay in the cool phase although weaker while the warm North Atlantic basin (including the tropics) indicates presence of the warm phase Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and tropical North Atlantic index. The -PDO/+AMO combination supports drought expansion during the warm season for the U.S. Additionally, the warm North Atlantic favors stronger hurricanes.