West Africa Cocoa Update…Cocoa-Growing Areas Drought Continues

Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot

Issued: Wednesday August 20, 2025

Highlight: West Africa Cocoa Update…Cocoa growing areas drought continues.

Fig. 1-2: The GRACE-based soil moisture anomaly analysis across Africa and the Africa weather satellite view identifying tropical waves north of cocoa areas.

Discussion: The soil moisture conditions across cocoa-growing zones of West Africa are in drought for the southern portion (Fig. 1). A wet climate and attendant soil conditions are not far to the north but likely to stay north of coastal West Africa. Latest weather satellite view identifies strong tropical waves moving westward across tropical Africa entering the western North Atlantic tropics with increasing risk of evolution to tropical cyclone status (Fig. 2). However, south of the tropical wave track, the cocoa areas are staying dry.

Combining GFS and ECM reveals a wet forecast across tropical Africa to the north of the equatorial region (Fig. 3-4). However, the heavy rain is staying north of the drought located in the southern cocoa-growing areas. Consequently, despite nearby heavy rains, coastal West Africa stays dry.

Fig. 3-4: The GFS+ECM percent of normal rainfall forecast for the next 2 weeks.