Focused on Dry/Drought Threat in U.S.
03/19/2025, 8:35 am EDT
Summary of Initial 2025 North Atlantic Basin TC Seasonal Outlook
03/21/2025, 12:00 pm EDT
Fig. 1-2: The GFS ENS 15-day upper air and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Australia.
Discussion: A wet pattern remains in the forecast for Australia into early April. Upper air forecasts feature a semi-persistent upper trough across northwest continent (Fig. 1). The upper trough produces instability coupled with warm SSTA surrounding the continent a regime develops capable of producing widespread heavy and consistent rains across much of Australia (Fig. 2).
Meanwhile, a similar condition (persistent upper trough) anchors over Southwest Europe into early April (Fig. 3). The upper trough maintains a wet pattern across Southwest Europe which extends northeastward to Italy and parts of Southeast Europe (Fig. 4). Excessive rainfall is involved. Forecast models have different opinions on whether the rainfall can reach the Black Sea region. The ECM ENS maintains dryness in Southwest Russia.
Fig. 3-4: The ECM ENS 15-day 500 MB anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe.