Cool Ending to May East U.S.; Warm-up in June
05/19/2025, 4:26 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Wednesday May 21, 2025
Highlight: More wet weather for the U.S. although Iowa missing a lot of the rain, drought erosion eastern Europe, season’s first chill threat in So. America.
Fig. 1-2: The anomalous rainfall across the U.S. since April 1st and the ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast.
Discussion: Since April 1st, much of the eastern half of the U.S. has observed excessive rainfall events. The most consistent location is the Mid-south States (Fig. 1). The only dry zone is the Northwest U.S. The 15-day outlook utilizing ECM ENS reveals additional excessive rainfall is ahead including East Texas to the Missouri Valley and eastward across the Tennessee Valley and into the Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). A small area of drier than normal climate since April 1st is indicated across Iowa and East Nebraska where about 1 inch of rain is possible over the next 15 days.
In Europe, a feast or famine rainfall pattern has dominated since April 1st featuring persistent rains in Southwest Europe, new rains in Turkey and Western Ukraine to the Baltics while dryness has dominated parts of Southwest Russia and (more) recently U.K. to Poland (Fig. 3). The 15-day outlook indicates wet weather for Southeast Europe northward into the Baltic States with dryness west and east of that wet zone (Fig. 4).
Finally, a chilly outbreak remains in the 11-15-day forecast across Argentina into Southwest Brazil as meteorological winter 2025 arrives (Fig. 5). There is marginal <32F/0C risk in northeast Argentina with the seasons first cool burst. In Australia, excessive rains continue into the weekend on the New South Wales Coast with new heavy rains surging into Western Australia next week (Fig. 6).
Fig. 3-4: The anomalous rainfall across Europe/Western Russia since April 1st and the ECM 15-day rainfall forecast.
Fig. 5-6: AIFS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Argentina/Brazil and the ECM 15-day rainfall anomaly outlook for Australia.