Heavy Rains Ahead But Mostly South of the Kansas D4 Drought Zone
04/24/2023, 5:57 am EDTGreat Plains Heavy Rain Indicated by 12Z GFS
05/02/2023, 1:47 pm EDTEurope/Western Russia Update. Persistence! Watching Southwest EU Drought!
Fig. 1-2: The percent of normal rainfall observations across Europe and Western Russia for the past 7 and 30 days.
Discussion: Most of Europe and through the Black Sea region is immersed in a wet pattern evident last week with most precipitation across Sweden and Finland and adding areas surrounding the Black Sea (Fig. 1). The past 30 days analysis reveals there are some important dry areas…Southwest Europe and Northwest Africa (Fig. 2). Interestingly, a large marine heat wave (MHW) has formed off the northwest coast of Africa/southwest coast of Europe and into the western Mediterranean Sea. Anomalous high pressure can build in MHW zones which could further enhance the Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe drought heading toward summer 2023.
The latest Europe Drought Observatory (EDO) soil moisture anomaly observations reveal the torrid Northwest Africa drought and strengthening drought in Spain (Fig. 3). Coastal France to Northern Italy is also in drought. Most of the crop areas in Central and East Europe have abundant soil moisture. Drought conditions are also evident in the Black Sea region.
The 15-day outlook indicates persistence. Southwest Europe and Northwest Africa dry and very warm-to-hot weather will continue to accelerate drought (Fig. 4-5). Dry soils in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea also attract anomalous heat and dryness well into May. The wet soil region continues with a near to wetter than normal and quite cool forecast. The wettest trend shifts into Southeast Europe.
Fig. 3: The latest Europe Drought Observatory soil moisture analysis across Europe and parts of the Black Sea region.
Fig. 4-5: The GFS 15-day temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe and Western Russia.