Hot and Dry Combination Accelerates Drought Risk West and East U.S.

Highlight: East (and West) look droughty.

Chart of the day: NOAA/CPC East U.S. drought.

Discussion: Due to rapid drying of soils in the East U.S., NOAA/CPC issues a statement on the likelihood of rapidly developing drought due to limited rainfall and the acceleration of soil moisture drying by anomalous heat.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 7-13, 2024: Hot/dry combination accelerates drought risk.

Discussion: Heat is (more) expansive, but not quite with the same amplitude as the outlook issued earlier this week. The U.S. pattern is mostly dry and with anomalous heat, soil moisture loss is impressive!

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 14-20, 2024: Expansive heat, mostly dry.

Discussion: Similar to the week-2 outlook, the U.S. forecast is for mid-July remains hot although not quite as hot as previously indicated. Once again, dryness is dominant, particularly in the West.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 21-27, 2024: A hot forecast could be hotter.

Discussion: ECM indicates hottest anomalies gravitating toward the western half of the nation accelerated by lack of a summer wet monsoon. However, the East also looks mostly dry, and the moderate hot anomalies could be stronger.

Week-5 Ahead Forecast valid July 28-August 3, 2024: Tropical issues Gulf; elsewhere heat continues.

Discussion: Significant impacts from tropical systems appear in the Gulf of Mexico as the onset of the busiest time of season arrives. Otherwise, hot and dry weather is dominant.