Preliminary Look at U.S. Winter 2021-22 Heating Degree Day Forecast

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08/18/2021, 8:51 am EDT

New Long-lead Forecasts From NOAA Include Wet Louisiana/Mid-Atlantic Projections in September. Possible TC Strikes!

08/20/2021, 10:29 am EDT

08/19/2021, 9:38 am EDT

The 2021 CDD Observations/Forecast and 2021-22 HDD Forecast UPDATED

	OBS/FCST 8/19/21	Previous 8/12/21	Last Year	10-Year Normal	30-Year Normal
APR-21	33		41	40	30
MAY-21	102		108	118	97
JUN-21	275		246	252	213
JUL-22	341		396	371	321
AUG-22	310	308	345	332	290
SEP-22	169	168	179	190	155
OCT-22	63	61	70	68	53

Table 1: Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight cooling degree day observations and forecast for the 2021 season.

	Forecast 8/19/21	Previous 8/12/21	Last Year	10-Year Normal	30-Year Normal
OCT-21	265	277	294	251	311
NOV-21	530	582	466	490	589
DEC-21	844	834	809	821	885
JAN-22	955	957	876	867	991
FEB-22	814	817	892	784	819
MAR-22	590	590	567	540	649
APR-22	334	334	314	320	340

Table 2: Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight heating degree day forecast for the 2021-22 season.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company 2021 U.S. population weight CDD observations/forecast versus 10-year/30-year normal.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company 2021 U.S. population weight HDD forecast versus 10-year/30-year normal.

CDD discussion: The 2021 CDD season in the U.S. has featured one extreme…a robust 275 CDD in June while other months have been typical of recent years, observations in-between the 30-year and 10-year normal. The updated forecast for August, September and October was raised slightly (1-2 CDD) from the previous forecast and each month is about half-way in-between the 30-year and 10-year normal.

HDD discussion: The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook. The meteorological winter forecast is adjusted based on actual and trend temperature anomaly forecasts by the CFS V2 model. December and January are each projected somewhat colder than last year. Featured is an increasingly cold Canada to far northern U.S. climate pattern while areas to the south of snow cover are quite mild. February is the coldest month relative to normal.