South/Southeast U.S. Drought Expansion; La Nina Climate Through Q1/2026
12/18/2025, 9:40 am EST
Warm/Dry Into Early January U.S. AG Belt
12/21/2025, 9:26 am EST
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Friday, December 19, 2025
Highlight: Extreme cold Central and East U.S. first half of December reverses very warm second half of December continuing in January.
Chart of the day: HDD forecasts are still favoring the below average heating demand.
Discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead continue to favor a mild climate, especially in the East. The consensus of operational models are trending colder, near the 10-year normal, for the week ending January 8th. So…operational models are pointing toward a colder regime whereas “weeklies” ignore that shift to maintain the warmth. Two AI models are cold in the 3-4-week period.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid December 28, 2025-January 4, 2026: Storm track across the Northwest U.S.; remainder of U.S. stays warm.
Discussion: The “atmospheric river” pattern is concentrated on the Northwest U.S. and east of that pattern, most of the U.S. is very warm. Arctic air is locked in Western Canada. Eastern Canada is warmer.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 4-11, 2026: Colder/snowy Northern U.S., stays warm elsewhere.
Discussion: The West U.S. storm track is maintained, and the remainder of the U.S. stays warm. Exceptions are West Canada cold seeping into the North-central States.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 11-18, 2026: Staying warm mid-January.
Discussion: Classic La Nina pattern difficult to break. Notable changes during mid-January are the storm track is less intense.