Madden Julian Oscillation is Progressive, Uncertain Influence on U.S. (Potentially) Wet Pattern
03/27/2026, 8:59 am EDT
Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report
Issued: Tuesday March 31, 2026
Highlight: Briefly cooler days 6-10, warm pattern broadens in the extended range.
Admin: Out of office 7:30AM to 1:30PM today.
Charts of the day: Comparing ECM ENS and AIFS ENS temperature forecast bias.
Discussion: Climate Impact Company utilizes the ECM ENS and AIFS ENS for most medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts due to their consistent no. 1 and 2 skill score ranking. During the past 30 days, the temperature forecast bias for 15-day forecasts has generally been too warm for Canada and too cool for parts of the U.S. The ECM ENS bias is stronger than AIFS ENS.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid April 5-9, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)
Discussion: AIFS ENS is utilized in today’s outlook. The forecast emphasizes resurgent heat in the West and shifts warmer in the Northwest. Texas is adjusted cooler due to wet weather.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid April 10-14, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)
Discussion: The U.S. shifts warmer in the 11-15-day period although the western warmth loses some strength while the East is shifting warmer since yesterday.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: The 6-10-day forecast is drier, especially in the Great Plains/East-central States while the Gulf Coast is wet. In the 11-15-day period, wet weather remains in the forecast across Texas extending northeastward through the Midwest States.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid April 15-19, 2026
Discussion: ECM is utilized for the extended-range forecast which maintains widespread anomalous warmth with wet weather confined to Mexico, Southwest Canada, and East-central Canada.