Subsurface East Pacific Cools Dramatically: La Nina Is On the Way!
05/11/2020, 12:24 pm EDTKansas Dryness Expanding and Intensifying
05/15/2020, 8:58 am EDTHighlight: 35% chance of a minimal tropical cyclone early next week.
Fig. 1: There is a 35% risk of an early season tropical cyclone next week off the U.S. East Coast.
Discussion: An area of shower activity across Cuba is forecast to slowly expand and gain intensity the next few days. By the weekend a low pressure area forms in the western Bahamas and drifts slowly northward. There is a 35% chance that the system is sufficiently organized to transition into a minimal tropical storm (Arthur) early next week while continuing a northeastward drift eventually accelerating out to sea.
Fig. 2: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.