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Brazil Heat and Dryness Accelerate Drought
09/29/2025, 4:43 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook
Issued: Thursday September 25, 2025
Headline: Brazil dryness continues; Extended range wet risk is low.
Charts of the day: ECM has produced a wet bias across Brazil with extended range forecasts.
Discussion: During the past 30 days, ECM has produced a wet bias with their rainfall forecasts in the 16-30-day timeframe. Conversely, the GFS is too dry.
Week-2 Valid October 5-12, 2025: Brazil drought zone stays dry.
Discussion: The outlook remains dry across the Brazil Drought Zone although ECM is wetter than normal across the North Coast. A cold front brings showers to Argentina.
Week-3 Valid October 12-19, 2025: ECM too wet in Brazil?
Discussion: ECM is wet in Brazil during the week-3 forecast. Support (from MJO) for the rainfall is weak. ECM is notably less hot than the previous week.
Week-4 Valid October 19-26, 2025: Dry/hot Brazil.
Discussion: Marginal wet weather is forecast by ECM in the Brazil Drought Zone. The forecast is made with LOW confidence.