Adjusting Heating Demand Forecasts for Winter 2025-26 in U.S. and Europe

Climate Impact Company Gas/Power Report

Issued: Wednesday December 10, 2025

Headline: Frigid December followed by a revised milder January in the U.S. while Europe HDD forecasts indicate below normal heating demand.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season.

Discussion: The DEC-25 U.S. gas population weight HDD is revised colder to 949, the coldest DEC since 2010 and 3^rd coldest of this century (Fig. 1). Previously, cold JAN-26 forecasts reversed warmer with mid-NOV updates and then colder with the early DEC projection. Operational models are shifting much warmer for JAN-26 therefore a warmer revision is necessary. The JAN-26 HDD forecast warms from 981 to 947 which ranks 13^th coldest of 2020-25. The DEC-25 HDD projection is slightly higher than the JAN-26 forecast observed on 3 occasions this century. The FEB-26 HDD forecast is unchanged at 763 which ranks 14^th warmest of this century.

Lack of snow cover across Europe guarantees a mild climate through early January. Risk of important cold mid-January through February is below average across Europe. The Europe-West and Europe-East HDD forecasts are adjusted milder (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company Europe-West and Europe-East selected cities HDD forecast for winter 2025-26 is adjusted warmer.