Marine heat waves continue to produce significant influence on where semi-permanent high-pressure areas form alongside their compensating low-pressure areas. Many MHW’s are ongoing in the northern hemisphere, the strongest east of Japan. Regenerating MHW’s are likely during the southern hemisphere summer in the subtropical/middle latitude oceans. The extensive warming of the ocean caused by MHW’s is likely suppressing La Nina onset.

Meteorological summer brings suppressed heat risk across the western third of the continent while central and eastern Australia are hotter than normal. The precipitation regime is quite wet in the Northwest, near normal on the South Coast, and drier than normal from central New South Wales across much of Queensland. Summer drought risk during summer 2024-25 increases in Queensland to Northern New South Wales.

Climate diagnostics reveal marginal support for weak La Nina ahead. Dynamic and analog forecasts maintain weak La Nina for late 2024 likely not lasting long ending as meteorological winter 2024-25 in the northern hemisphere closes. The low confidence ENSO phase forecast for the remainder of 2025 is steady neutral ENSO phase. Strong ENSO events are not likely into 2026.