Possibly due to seasonality, a transition toward a climate pattern with greater influence from the tropics, the far Southern U.S. including the Gulf States and particularly Texas are forecast to lose their tendency for extreme heat or produce a choppy not pattern as indicated with the SERC 15-day outlook.

While oceanic El Nino onset was announced by NOAA in June, the atmosphere is lagging with a lingering memory of the 2020-23 lengthy La Nina keeping atmospheric ENSO in neutral phase.

Regions of drier change during the past 3 months outnumber the wetter change by 14-4. One possible explanation is the increased mid-atmospheric high pressure related to large regions of anomalous warm SSTA and causing dry climate.

Since June 11th, a total of 15 days has produced near 500 or more severe storm (damage) reports. More than 25% of the time during this 8-week period, a day when an unusual amount of severe weather has generated. The highest total of severe weather reports was 1,049 occurring yesterday most concentrated over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S.