Most evident in the 6-10-day period, the subtropical ridge delivering a hot and mostly dry 1-5-day forecast splits in the 6-10-day period to allow tropical moisture to shift across Central Brazil in a forecast change. In the 11-15-day period, Central Brazil trends wetter for the same reason.

The region of primary drought concern for summer 2023-24 is across Northern Brazil. Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomalies identify this risk area. Recently, the deep layer soil moisture deficit region has expanded southward into Central Brazil warranting drought concern for Brazil’s northern crop areas. During the past 7-10 days, the deep layer soil moisture deficit has eased slightly.

The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead outlook for the winter 2023-24 season is adjusted less warm due to a potential cold January. The forecast features above normal precipitation for Western Europe and West/Northwest Russia where above normal snowfall is likely.

Climate Impact Company summer 2023-24 precipitation forecasts for South America identify Central Brazil as an area likely to observe worsening drought. Currently, NOAA daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread drought areas lingering in South America most focused on Chile, Argentina, and northern continent. Dryness also exists across many parts of Brazil. Of concern is deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits caused by long-term dry climate shifting southward into Central Brazil. The combination of shallow and deep layer dry soils can lead to fast-evolving drought.