The February 2024 Australia soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals lack of widespread drought typical of an El Nino summer. Dry soils are present across parts of northern and southern portions of Western Australia while wet soils dominate elsewhere.

The upper ocean heat required to support El Nino is almost gone east of the Deadline. Subsurface warmth remains near the Dateline but is sharply cooler in the east-central and far east subsurface region. Anomalous warmth required in the subsurface to sustain El Nino is fading fast.

Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) considers both short and long-term precipitation patterns and the attendant influence on soil moisture to identify where drought is most likely to evolve or if already present most likely to intensify. Currently, EDDI analysis reveals harsh ED4 conditions centered on the Northern U.S. Corn Belt.

A surge of strong west to southwest wind extends to the Smokehouse Creek fire zone peaking tomorrow afternoon with sustained west to southwest wind near 30 mph on the western edge of the fire zone. In this scenario, expansion of the fires eastward into Oklahoma is expected. On Sunday, wind speeds ease slightly while the wind direction is southwest. Tuesday night, wind shifts to north-northeast at 10-20 mph. The 12Z GFS indicates little or no rain during the latest 15-day outlook across Northern Texas.