Using ALL models, the forecast consensus of minimum temperature in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio is near or slightly colder than the just-ended cold regime although shorter in duration. The coldest morning of the January 19-22 cold spike forecast is colder than the just-ended episode for Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.

High pressure emerges on the Southeast Brazil Coast. This is a change from previous low pressure in this zone. Consequently, a pattern-change. Hotter and drier weather shifts across Southern Brazil. To compensate, wetter conditions develop in Northeast Argentina.

The Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook for 2025 indicates La Nina will continue through Q1/2025 and weaken during Q2/2025 followed by neutral ENSO. Late in 2025, forecast confidence is low as a weak El Nino could emerge, ENSO remains neutral, or a second La Nina generates. The DEC-24 subsurface equatorial East Pacific cooled dramatically and trails only 2008 and 2010 for coolest upper ocean heat anomalies during December for all La Nina events this century.

During DEC-24, the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline produced a sharp drop in upper ocean heat. The observation is by far the coolest of 2024, a year when La Nina has struggled to develop. The dramatic subsurface cooling coupled with increased trade winds helped the Nino34 SSTA surge to a moderate-strength La Nina-like value of -1.1C Christmas Week. However, since that time waters have warmed slightly.