The preliminary U.S. population weight monthly CDD anomaly forecast for April through October 2024 indicates a similar pattern to the past 3 years: Near normal early in the season, increasing anomalous heat through mid-season which can ease slightly late in the season.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation stretches across Maritime Continent and responsible for an active tropical cyclone pattern affecting Australia including Cateogry-2 Tropical Cyclone Megan on the North Coast. As the MJO shifts eastward and across the equatorial Pacific, the 5th such MJO surge since last September, a wetter pattern for Brazil and the Midwest U.S. generates in 8-14 days.

During meteorological winter, the northern hemisphere received mostly a wetter soil moisture signature largely due to the influence of El Nino. In the U.S., most of the western half of the U.S. observed a wet soil moisture trend. Similarly, the U.S. East Coast trend was wetter particularly in the Northeast Corridor. The drier tendency in the Midwest continued.

Using a different approach to analog ENSO phase for 2024, Climate Impact Company takes a look at the peak ocean heat east of the Dateline late in the year of the ongoing El Nino compared to the loss of upper ocean heat as El Nino weakens the following February.