The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is exceptionally warm for winter 2021-22. The problem is the high energy demand Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States are generally quite mild this winter limiting heating demand in that region while other sectors such as the West and North-central States can be very cold. The impact of sensible weather is driven by population.

According to NOAA, the U.S. set a record yesterday for most observed gusts >hurricane force (74 mph), just 5 days since the historic tornado outbreak on December 10th.  According to NOAA, more than 55 reports of gusts >74 mph were observed in Midwestern States. According to NOAA, the previous record was 53 reports set on August 10, 2020 (period of record 2004-2021).  

An evolving longwave upper trough extending from Western Russia to Southwest Europe causes deepening and expansion of Western Eurasia snow cover and steady intensification of an attendant winter chill. Supported by strong negative phase of both the arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation this feature locks-in for the last third of December into early January.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology identifies the developing heat wave across Northern Australia as rare for this early in the season! The aerial coverage and risk BOTH peak during the 3-day period of Dec. 16-18. During that time maximum temperatures are well over 100F with very warm nights offering limited recovery.