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06/13/2022, 12:52 pm EDT

Mid-June North Atlantic SSTA Pattern is Marginally Warm

The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days. The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.

06/12/2022, 9:38 am EDT

A ROBUST La Nina Climate continues Through Q3/2022

Although oceanic parameters are of moderate La Nina intensity, the strong La Nina atmosphere is likely triggered by the sharp contrast in strong subsidence across the East Pacific tropics compared with an energetic convective regime across the far West Pacific as identified by the May 2022 monthly velocity potential analysis from IRI/LDEO.

05/30/2022, 9:49 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation Shifts to Atlantic in Early June Increasing TC Risk

The convection phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation has shifted into the tropical East Pacific and helped trigger Hurricane Agatha. Forecasts indicate the MJO shifts to the tropical Atlantic in early June which supports tropical cyclone activity development - most likely in the Gulf of Mexico.

05/27/2022, 9:55 am EDT

Projected U.S. High Impact Climate June Through September

The primary concerns heading into summertime are drought (and attendant anomalous heat) and coastal tropical cyclone risk. The JUN/JUL 2022 outlook emphasizes dryness (and anomalous heat) across Texas and into the Southwest States. Drought in this region, particularly Texas strengthens. The Midwest States are wet in June and flip very dry mid-summer.