In late August, GFS indicates a titanic upper-level high-pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes region to Quebec. The upper-level ridge is well-correlated to very warm SSTA in the northwest North Atlantic basin. The GFS indicates the tropical cyclone season finally gets underway the last week of August.

During the mid-to-late 1990’s to 2022, the North Atlantic basin entered a decadal warm cycle. Most of that time the North Atlantic basin has produced warmer-than-normal SST accounting for an uptick in tropical cyclone activity. The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is a SSTA index covering the entire North Atlantic basin.

Many regions of warm/cool SSTA are adversely affecting global climate in July 2022 and now into August including the northeast Pacific Marine Heat Wave and super-warm waters off the Asia East Coast plus surrounding Europe. Meanwhile the tropical North Atlantic has not warmed as expected (yet).

July 2022 was a brutally hot mid-summer for most Americans. July 2022 ranked 3rd hottest of the 128-year climatology. Texas observed their hottest July on record inspired by harsh drought. 7 states observed all-time to-5 months of July stretching from Oregon to Rhode Island.