The 15-day hot and dry weather forecast for the Great Plains featuring some excessive heat coupled with vast worsening dryness for both shallow and deep layer soil moisture increases the risk for rapidly developing drought for the first half of August.

In the western Caribbean Sea, an upper-level tropospheric trough (TUTT) is persisting. High-level wind identifies the northeast to east wind across the northern Gulf of Mexico to the south of an intense subtropical high-pressure area over Texas.

Recently, waters off the West Coast have cooled dramatically. The release of the latent heat involved in this process may have amplified the upper ridge pattern roasting the Northwest U.S. All of the warming of the ocean surface during the past 2+ weeks is north of Hawaii where Marine Heat Wave NEP22A is intensifying.

Due to unexpected cooler than normal waters in the North Atlantic basin subtropics and only near normal SSTA in the deep tropics the 2022 seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is reduced slightly in the latest Climate Impact Company update.