The Difference Between CFS V2 and CIC-CA Upper Air Forecast for Winter 2022-23
10/13/2022, 11:24 am EDTIncoming High Wind Event Central U.S.
10/19/2022, 8:21 am EDT
Fig. 1: Latest satellite view of an emerging storm in South-central Australia.
Discussion: The southeast quadrant of Australia was hit-hard by excessive rainfall last week. More heavy rain is on the way! Currently, weather satellite view identifies an emerging storm centered on the central south coast of Australia (Fig. 1). A cold front is focusing thunderstorms northward to central continent. This system is the latest in a series produced by a steady trail of potent upper troughs moving across Southern Australia. The transient heavy-rain-producing troughs continue the second half of October.
ECM indicates excessive rainfall focused on northeast New South Wales to southeast Queensland this week (Fig. 2) as an incoming potent storm stalls and elongates along the coast. Another wave of wet weather with a following storm (or two) brings additional heavy rain this time focused on Southeast Australia in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3).
The excessive rain risk carries through the end of the month across East Australia.
Fig. 2-3: ECM 5-day rainfall forecasts for the next 10 days across Australia.