Inconsistent Asia Monsoon for Summer 2023
09/25/2023, 2:36 pm EDTNorth Atlantic Basin Week 2-5 Outlook: Screeching Halt to Larger Storms; Western Basin Development
09/28/2023, 12:24 pm EDT
Fig. 1-3: The GFS 1-7-day temperature anomaly forecast across Australia, 6-10-day rainfall amount outlook, and 8-14-day temperature anomaly pattern change.
Discussion: The Australian rainfall pattern is shifting very dry. Last week, coastal areas susceptible to wet weather received little or no rain. Drying soil moisture regions is accelerating due to the lack of rain and recent expansive anomalous heat. However, a pattern change is ahead. After additional dry and hot (Fig. 1) weather for another week or so, a sharp cold front brings heavy rain to Southeast Australia mid-next week (Fig. 2) followed by a much cooler temperature regime as indicated by GFS (Fig. 3). Models differ on the extent of the cooler weather in the 8-14-day period while the rainfall forecast is confident.