Evolving Arctic Air Mass is Possible in Russia

Fig. 1: Northern hemisphere snow cover anomalies from the Rutgers Snow Lab.

Northern hemisphere snow cover is much above normal in North America, Asia and more recently Eastern Europe (Fig. 1). Snow cover will provide a cold bias to the prevailing climate pattern. In Eurasia, the mega-cluster ensemble is indicating risk of an evolving very cold air mass eventually featuring arctic air and gradually spreading by the 11-15-day period (Fig. 2-4). In Eastern Europe, short-term cold is present followed by slight moderation but possibly returning in the 11-15-day period. The mega-cluster ensemble is not as warm as operational models and is the preferred outlook due to the likely colder influence of expanding snow cover on prevailing Eurasia temperature anomaly patterns into early meteorological winter.

Fig. 2-4: Mega-cluster ensemble temperature anomaly forecast for Europe/Russia through the next 15 days.

Last week, precipitation amount across parts of Europe was buoyant and the Rhine River water level has responded positively. The 2-week outlook indicates more beneficial precipitation and consequently the river level forecast through the next 2 weeks indicates dramatic improvement (Fig. 9).

Fig. 5: Latest Rhine River water level forecast is improving.