MAR/APR/MAY 2025 Climate Forecast Review for U.S., Europe/Western Russia, and South America
02/24/2025, 5:35 am EST
A Summer Review and an Autumn Outlook for Australia
02/27/2025, 1:22 pm EST
Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company U.S. soil moisture outlook for June 1, 2025.
Discussion: The early meteorological summer 2025 U.S. soil moisture condition projects a large drought across the Southwest U.S. including the southern half of both California and Texas (Fig. 1). Drought is also projected for much of the Atlantic Seaboard plus northern Florida. Dry soil conditions extend across the North-central U.S. plus parts of the Gulf Coast through the interior East U.S. and southern Florida. The only wet zone is centered on Kentucky to West Virginia. Hot zones during early-to-middle summer (Fig. 2-3) will observe over-achieving heat due to dry soil or drought regions. Candidates for over-achieving summer heat are Texas and the Southwest U.S. in June and July plus most of the Great Plains in July.
Fig. 2-3: The Climate Impact Company June and July 2025 temperature anomaly forecast for the U.S.
The early meteorological summer 2025 U.S. soil moisture condition projects a large drought across the Southwest U.S. including the southern half of both California and Texas (Fig. 1). Drought is also projected for much of the Atlantic Seaboard plus northern Florida. Dry soil conditions extend across the North-central U.S. plus parts of the Gulf Coast through the interior East U.S. and southern Florida. The only wet zone is centered on Kentucky to West Virginia. Hot zones during early-to-middle summer (Fig. 2-3) will observe over-achieving heat due to dry soil or drought regions. Candidates for over-achieving summer heat are Texas and the Southwest U.S. in June and July plus most of the Great Plains in July.
Currently, U.S. soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread dryness across the North-central U.S. through the northern Ohio Valley and into the Northeast Corridor (Fig. 4). Drought is indicated from the southern half of California to the southern half of Texas. Dry soils dominate the Southeast U.S. and Florida. A streak of wet soil conditions exists from the Mid-south States to Kentucky and southwestern Virginia. During February, much wetter soil conditions are observed across the northern half of California to Idaho and Kentucky to Virginia (Fig. 5).
Fig. 4: U.S. soil moisture analysis for February 24, 2025.
Fig. 5: The February 2025 (so far) U.S. soil moisture change analysis.
Fig. 6: The Climate Impact Company meteorological spring precipitation anomaly forecast.