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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Highlight: Heat breaks but warm pattern returns in September.
Chart of the day: 6-Week U.S. population weight CDD forecast.
Discussion: Despite the current heat, the peak weeks for hot weather in the U.S. occurred in June and July with this week and next week ranking 4th and 5th warmest. The outlook is cooler, trending to normal late AUG/early SEP before a warmer regime will regenerate in September.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 17-24, 2025: Cooler East.
Discussion: Upper trough boots Erin northeastward from the western North Atlantic while cooling Quebec and ending hot risk in the East U.S. Anomalous heat remains over Texas and the Northern Rockies. The Canadian Prairies stay wet.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 24-31, 2025: Rebuilding Southwest heat.
Discussion: Upper trough leaves the East near normal while hot weather is resurgent across the Southwest and beginning to build northward. An upper trough brings needed rain to the Northwest Coast.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 31-September 7, 2025: Widening warmth.
Discussion: ECM rewarms the East; other operational and AI models keep the East temperate. In September, widespread anomalous warmth is forecast to regenerate by climate outlooks. Nationally, the pattern is dry except the Coastal Northwest.