Gathering Heavy Rain for Florida

Issued later today…New climate outlooks for JUL-OCT for U.S. and Europe.

Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: The California and Southwest U.S. heatwave continues for at least 2 more days (Fig. 1). The heat remains in the northern/eastern SFO Bay Area. Heat Advisories are patchy across parts of New Mexico and Texas. The next evolving issue is tropical rainfall. Note the NOAA/WPC 7-day rainfall forecast starting to gather heavy amounts across Florida (Fig. 2). Additional details in the 10-day tropical monitor issued shortly. Additionally, a steady and daily threat of excessive rain develops across the southern Great Plains beginning this weekend. The U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the week of June 14-20 identifies a lot of uncertainty as forecast models grapple with how to interpret the impact of developing tropical weather on the mid-latitude pattern (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: NOAA/WPC 7-day rainfall forecast for the U.S.

Fig. 3: The U.S. population weight CDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.