A primary concern is whether presence of dry-to-drought conditions across the eastern half of Europe to Southwest Russia and the Black Sea region will worsen mid-to-late spring and summer. The outlooks support intensification as the presence of upper-level ridging to warm and dry this region well-supported by the correlating SSTA forecasts.

A low-pressure system over Southwest Europe budged eastward the past couple days inducing a moist southerly flow into South and East Europe. The moist flow is enhanced by above normal moisture in the lower atmosphere propelled by the long-standing marine heatwave across the Mediterranean Sea. The heavy rain has caused flooding from Spain to Italy.

During the past 7 days, heavy rain has affected Portugal and Spain to Northern Italy with areas to the north staying dry from U.K. eastward to the Black Sea region. Soil moisture deficits continue to increase across Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia.

A storm system with low pressure in the 970's guarantees widespread damaging synoptic scale wind and widespread severe weather with impressive outbreaks for the eastern half of the U.S. beginning tomorrow in the Central/East-central U.S. and lasting through Sunday passing the Atlantic Seaboard.