Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.

A large area of snow is forecast to the north of a slowly developing low pressure system, most intense off the Northeast Coast, this weekend. The NBM model forecasts 4-8 in. of snow in the Midwest which looks a bit high, and a more aggressive snowfall forecast, for New England, especially near the coast as the storm strengthens offshore early Sunday. There is a freezing rain/ice accretion risk across a large area most likely causing impacts over west-central Pennsylvania.

Ongoing drought risk across Argentina and Brazil as mid-meteorological summer 2024-25 has passed remains intense. Forecast models have generally been over-forecasting rainfall, especially in Brazil. During January, anomalous heat dominated Argentina. Despite periodic rainfall, mid-summer heat accelerates drying soils.

Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.