The subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled significantly during MAR/APR 2024 providing a promising catalyst for La Nina development during the second half of 2024. However, the cooling is reduced by 50% during the past 2 months and combined with a persistent neutral southern oscillation index suggests the current neutral ENSO phase is likely to persist with weak La Nina still possible but at reduced risk.

As stated by Colorado State University in their July 9 update, Category-5 Major Hurricane was a “harbinger” of what’s ahead during the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. The record warm sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and main development region (MDR) for hurricanes east of the Caribbean Sea provide an ideal environment for tropical cyclones to form and strengthen as shown by Beryl.

The extremely warm thermal regime across the U.S. during 2024 continued in June. The month of June ranked 2nd hottest in 130-year history. Record heat was observed in Arizona and New Mexico. Near-record warmth was observed in California, Florida, Utah, Colorado, and Maryland plus all southern New England plus Maine. Only the northern Great Plains were near normal.

Beryl’s response to the anomalous warm SST during the early July trek was notable. First, Beryl became a hurricane once SST warmed to 84F in the central North Atlantic tropics. The earliest hurricane on record for this location was born as SST was much above the usual (for July 1) 81-82F SST for this region.