Late May Europe soil moisture was scary-dry! However, early-to-middle June brought pattern change...a much wetter climate. 10-day forecasts maintain the wet weather pattern across Europe easing the drought risk present in late May.

Central U.S. seasonal soil moisture trend is notably drier. Occasional hot and dry weather events will accelerate the dryness. A period of hot weather is ahead late weekend and next week for the central and southern Great Plains further aggravating the drier soil trend for much of that region.

The vast majority of soils across the globe are wetter than normal which is rare during the modern climate pattern. In North America there remain wet soil regions in the Central and East U.S. although the Great Plains trend is mostly drier. The East/Southeast U.S. is trending wetter. Much of Mexico is now trending wetter. In South America a wet trend developed across Western Brazil while central Argentina and the southern Chilean Drought Area turned wetter.

The forecast intensity has increased now indicating 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The season is projected as the busiest since 2010 and 2012. The accumulated cyclone energy index is raised to 149. Several hurricanes are forecast to affect the Gulf of Mexico, at least one making landfall in the Carolinas and several developing near the Bahamas but staying offshore.