Normally, threatening tropical waves for tropical cyclone development develop after August 1st. However, this year the deep tropics are looking active early! Tropical Disturbance 95L is approaching the Caribbean Sea and is encountering upper shear likely to prevent this system from organizing further.

A review of rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index reveals much of the U.S. is either in a drought or has drought concerns as mid-summer approaches. The West/Northwest to North-central drought is historic. However, Florida has slipped into a harsh drought. Much of the Northeast and East also has significant rainfall shortages.

Re-emergence of another extreme hot weather event is forecast for this weekend in the Southwest U.S., California and the Northwest States. This time the peak heat, which could reach 120F occurs in northern California and the Interior Northwest States likely next Monday.

Tropical Disturbance 92L is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow night and north-northeastward into southwest Louisiana on Saturday. Northwest Gulf of Mexico waters are 85-86F which supports a hurricane. Tropical cyclone models are projecting a moderate-strength tropical storm. However, there is potential for an over-achieving system late this week in the northwest Gulf of Mexico.