Arctic cold is established over Western Canada into the Northern U.S. and snow cover is expanding. Recent model runs have removed this arctic air by the middle third of January. But arctic air is very difficult to dissipate. Warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast leads to sea level rise which causes any onshore flow to quickly push a flooding risk.

A conservative U.S. drought forecast is most-focused on West-central to Mid-south U.S. drought expansion/strengthening while also strengthening drought from the Carolinas to Florida. The “caveat” (and more extreme scenario) forecast projects a wider drought stretching across the southern half of the U.S. and possibly into the Western U.S. Corn Belt.

Inevitable is the evolution of a snowy pattern Central to Northeast U.S. given the large cold air source region in Western Canada to the North-central U.S. The clash of that cold with milder temperatures in the East means snow or rain-to-snow events from Kansas to New England in the 10-day outlook.

The NCEP CFS V2 forecast model delays La Nina dissipation until early summer 2021 (in the northern hemisphere). Previously, La Nina was forecast to dissipate by MAR/APR 2022.