ECMWF indicates the most likely location for tropical cyclones to develop that can become hurricanes and make landfall on the U.S. Coast is in the Gulf of Mexico for the last third of September and into early October. This season's core activity arrives late and lasts longer than usual!

Circumstances leading to an unusually dry mid-troposphere during August should start to ease in early September and allow tropical cyclone development to occur and flourish in some sectors. Tropical Disturbance 91L in the central North Atlantic tropics has a chance to become a tropical cyclone while an uptick in southwest Gulf of Mexico and outer North Atlantic tropics activity is likely by late this week.

ECMWF indicates the low relative humidity in the low-to-middle troposphere across the central North Atlantic tropics inhibiting August tropical cyclone development eases very slowly in September and not until late month and early October is that pattern favorable for widespread tropical threats. A late peak of season this year!

Strong to sometimes historic drought has affected many key areas during JUN/JUL/AUG 2022 including China, Europe, the U.S. and South America. 15-day rainfall outlooks indicate more dryness for China, redeveloping dryness in South America, wiping out the Southern U.S. drought and some beneficial rains for parts of the Europe drought area.