Southwest Europe and Black Sea Heavy Rains

Fig. 1-2: The percent of normal rainfall across Europe for Oct. 2-8 and daily soil moisture anomaly analysis.

Discussion: In early October heavy rains streaked across Portugal and Spain and extended to South-central Europe and Western Russia (Fig. 1). The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals a tale of two regimes with soaked soils in Europe and a drought centered on Southwest Russia (Fig. 2). In the latest (GFS) 15-day outlook, wet weather continues although consolidating in Southwest Europe (Fig. 3) with a new wet zone emerging across the Black Sea region (Fig. 4). The GFS indicates potential for excessive rainfall along the coastal portions of the Black Sea. However, limited rainfall reaches parched Southwest Russia. The GFS is the wettest of the operational models for both regions.

Fig. 3-4: The GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe and GFS rainfall amount outlook for the Black Sea region.