Dramatic Cooling East Pacific Subsurface in December; La Nina Lasts to Q2/2025
01/09/2025, 2:09 pm EST
Another Cold Shot for Texas Could Be Stronger Than Previous Episode
01/12/2025, 10:05 am EST
Daily Nino34: -0.70 (Officially, oceanic La Nina onset)
Daily TSA Index: +0.47 (emerging warm phase slows)
Daily SOI: -0.46 (weaker La Nina climate)
Charts of the day: Jan. 2-8 rainfall and daily soil moisture analysis.
Discussion: The 7-day percent of normal rainfall analysis valid for Jan. 2-8, 2025, across South America reveals dangerously dry conditions for Northeast Argentina to Southeast Brazil, which is expected. However, the dryness across the remainder of Brazil is stronger than suggested by wet Brazil 15-day forecasts of recent weeks. Consequently, daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread dryness in Brazil and emerging dryness in Argentina.
Week-2 Valid January 19-25, 2025: Expanding heat and dryness in Southern Brazil.
Discussion: High pressure emerges on the Southeast Brazil Coast. This is a change from previous low pressure in this zone. Consequently, a pattern-change. Hotter and drier weather shifts across Southern Brazil. To compensate, wetter conditions develop in Northeast Argentina.
Week-3 Valid January 26-February 1, 2025: Drier Brazil continues.
Discussion: The Brazil hot and dry pattern expands. Northeast Argentina rains (also) expand.
Week-4 Valid February 2-8, 2025: Brazil dryness persists.
Discussion: CFS V2 maintains persistence in early February although the upper air support is weaker. Much of Brazil is drier and hotter than normal.