Comparing NOAA and Climate Impact Company U.S. Winter 2023-24 Outlook

Fig. 1-4: NOAA/CPC December 2023 temperature and precipitation probability outlook compared with the Climate Impact Company anomaly forecast.

Discussion: NOAA updates their long-lead probability climate forecasts valid through next year. The December 2023 outlook favors warmth in the East and wet weather in the central Plains and Southeast U.S. (Fig. 1 and 3). Comparing NOAA with CIC indicates similarities with warmth in the East and storminess Central/Southeast States although the CIC Northwest U.S. forecast is colder (Fig. 2 and 4).

The NOAA meteorological winter 2023-24 outlook remains warm across the Northern U.S. while the precipitation forecast is wet across the southern half of the U.S. (Fig. 5 and 7). The CIC outlook stays cold in the West and warm in the East and also indicates a vigorous storm track affecting much of the U.S. (Fig. 6 and 8).

Fig. 5-8: NOAA/CPC DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 temperature and precipitation probability outlook compared with the Climate Impact Company anomaly forecast.

The NOAA seasonal drought outlook indicates erosion (not a complete ending) of Southern U.S. drought from Texas to the Tennessee Valley (Fig. 9). The Arizona/New Mexico drought continues. Additionally, the Midwest U.S. drought centered on Iowa is forecast to remain through winter 2023-24.

Next summer looks hot (again)! NOAA and CIC are most agreeable to excessive heat risk for meteorological summer 2024 in the Mid-Atlantic U.S. region (Fig. 10-11).

Fig. 9: NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook valid through winter 2023-24.

Fig. 10-11: NOAA/CPC JUN/JUL/AUG 2024 temperature and precipitation probability outlook compared with the Climate Impact Company anomaly forecast.