Cold Weather into The Black Sea Region

Discussion: Cold temperatures spread across Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia this morning forecast to return Thursday morning concentrated on Eastern Ukraine (Fig. 1). Another pulse of cold shifts into Romania and Western Ukraine Friday morning (Fig. 2). The cold slowly retreats northward this weekend. The cold follows a wet period where significant rain was observed although a few areas missed the rain (Fig. 3). Overall, the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals limited benefit from early April precipitation (Fig. 4). The outlook indicates wet weather, mostly over the Black Sea region through this weekend (Fig. 5) followed by a dry 6-10-day forecast (Fig. 6) with precipitation staying mostly to the northwest (according to GFS) in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 7). The NCEP CFS V2 indicates return of an upper low possibly producing some rainfall in the Black Sea Crop Area late this month (Fig. 8).

An upper ridge across northwest to central continent this week shifts eastward across the eastern half of Australia in the medium range. The influence on Australia climate is an easterly shift of very warm weather across the continent, most anomalous across the southern tier (Fig. 9). The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is causing the eastward push of the weather pattern. MJO-inspired heavy rains flirts with the North Coast of Australia (Fig. 10). As the warm weather shifts east in the medium range, wet risk appears across western continent.

Fig. 1-2: The GFS cold forecast for tomorrow and Friday morning in the Black Sea region.

Fig. 3-4: The Europe 7-day percent of normal precipitation observations and daily soil moisture analysis.

Fig. 5-8: GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across the Black Sea region and the CFS V2 week-4 upper air forecast.

Fig. 9-10: ECM 15-day temperature anomaly and rainfall totals forecast across Australia.