Evaluating Current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index
01/10/2025, 10:54 am EST
Frigid Weather Next Week in U.S.; Zero F Risk Across Great Plains to Northeast
01/15/2025, 8:52 am EST
Daily Nino34: -0.62 (La Nina continues, weaker than 2 weeks ago)
Daily TSA Index: +0.47 (steady weak warm phase)
Daily SOI: -1.84 (strong negative, explains weaker La Nina past 2 weeks)
Charts of the day: Northeast Argentina harsh dryness.
Discussion: Extremely dry weather has anchored over Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil during early-to-middle January and the 10-day rainfall outlook from GFS maintains the dry signature as soil moisture conditions deteriorate rapidly.
Week-2 Valid January 19-25, 2025: Northeast Brazil is drier, Argentina stays dry.
Discussion: A reversal in the Northeast Brazil wet pattern of the current week is indicated for next week and the forecast trend is drier. Meanwhile, the southern shift of wet weather affects Paraguay and eastward but leaves parched Argentina dry.
Week-3 Valid January 26-February 1, 2025: Argentina stays dry.
Discussion: The Argentina dryness and anomalous heat is likely to continue as expected rains are mostly over Paraguay and eastward with less intensity than previously indicated.
Week-4 Valid February 2-8, 2025: East Brazil/Argentina dryness.
Discussion: The of the outlook continues: Argentina dryness/worsening drought continues.