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Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor
Issued: Friday September 19, 2025, 8:45AM EDT
Highlight: Gabrielle expected to become the 2nd hurricane of the year.
Fig. 1: The annual tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic basin since 1995.
Discussion: The long-term warm cycle of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (+AMO) began in the middle 1990’s. During 1995-2024, seasonal activity increased dramatically compared to long-term averages (Fig. 1). However, in 2025, seasonal activity (assuming Gabrielle reaches hurricane strength) is one of the lowest amounts for late September in the 30-year climatology. The least total amount of hurricanes observed since 1995 was 2 in 2013 and 3 in 1997 and 2009.
The morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin reveals a strengthening Tropical Storm Gabrielle forecast to become a hurricane southeast of Bermuda early next week and a new tropical disturbance off the Northwest Coast of Africa which is unlikely to develop (Fig. 2). ECMWF indicates a possible problem drifting into the Gulf of Mexico during the 11-15-day period.
Fig. 2: The North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.